in recent years, with the impact of policies such as stricter environmental protection, supply-side reform and volume purchase after consistency evaluation, the competition pattern of some raw materials and drugs and their position in the pharmaceutical industry chain have gradually changed significantly.
In January 2019, the price trend of vitamin varieties was weak as a whole. In January, the price of vitamin varieties declined to a certain extent. VD3 was affected by the increase of shipments from some manufacturers before, and the decline was larger. Due to the supply gap, the price of VA reached a high of 535 yuan/kg at the beginning of December 2018, and then fell to 465 yuan/kg at the end of December with the gradual balance between supply and demand. At present, the price of VA has further declined to 400 yuan/kg. With the approach of the Spring Festival, the price trend of vitamin varieties is weaker in January 2019. The resumption of purchasing by major manufacturers after the festival is expected to boost market prices.
Prices of antibiotic intermediates remained flat or declined: in December 2018, prices of penicillin industrial salt, 6-APA, 7-ADCA and amoxicillin declined slightly, while prices of 7-ACA, 4-AA and erythromycin thiocyanate remained stable. It is expected that the differentiation fluctuation of antibiotic intermediates will continue in the future, but we still need to pay close attention to the clinical policy orientation and the changes of supply and demand patterns of different varieties.
The price of saponin and diene in December 2018 was 565,000 yuan/ton and 980,000 yuan/ton, respectively. The ring-to-ring ratio of saponin and diene declined by 1.74% and 1.01%. The price of diene and saponin has entered a plateau period, but we still need to pay close attention to the implementation of environmental protection.
Characteristic APIs are basically stable: in December 2018, except atorvastatin, the prices of other APIs such as sartan, pril and statin remained stable as a whole; the export volume of heparin increased by 45% annually, and the export price increased by 9% annually. In the future, the competition of characteristic APIs will gradually intensify, but with the promotion of consistency evaluation, the requirements of pharmaceutical manufacturers for the quality of characteristic APIs will be improved, and the upstream APIs manufacturers that meet the requirements will have stronger bargaining power.
In January 2019, the price trend of vitamin varieties was weakly affected by the factors of Spring Festival. In December 2018, the price of antibiotic intermediates remained flat or declined. Among the prices of hormones and characteristic APIs, except atorvastatin, the prices of other APIs remained stable as a whole. In addition to environmental factors, capacity constraints break the stable supply-demand relationship, natural growth of demand gradually digests capacity and expectations of "supply-side reform" are the catalysts for the stock price of APIs. If the production capacity, channel inventory and price strategy of some minority APIs manufacturers change, the product price will fluctuate greatly. In addition, the promotion of consistency evaluation and purchasing with quantity will give qualified upstream characteristic API manufacturers stronger bargaining power. We recommend that investors maintain a sustained focus on the API sector, select companies that can provide high-quality and characteristic APIs and those that have the ability to upgrade and develop to the pharmaceutical or CDMO sectors.